关于我国2010年人口普查事后质量检查样本量测算的建议

同以往历次进行的人口普查一样,我国在2010年第六次人口普查后也将进行事后质量检查。样本量估计是抽取事后质量检查样本之前必须要做的一项工作。本人建议,用2000年人口普查事后质量检查样本资料估计其抽样方案的设计效应,然后用这个设计效应估计2010年在既定精度要求下所需要的样本量。     

因子分析在京杭大运河水质评价中的应用

用主成分分析的方法找出影响京杭大运河淮安段水质的主因子,求出因子得分函数,计算各样本的因子得分及水质综合评分,据此对京杭大运河淮安段各监测断面的水质进行评价.     

基于Logistic回归的水质预测研究

在环境系统评价中,水环境质量等级评价是其中十分重要的工作.鉴于对水环境研究中,水质级别为分类变量不能利用传统回归方法分析的特征,基于logistic回归方法建立了一种水质级别预测模型.利用长江流域的水质监测数据,将logistic回归应用于水质数据分析,进行水质建模,对水质级别做出预测.研究结果表明利用logistic回归进行水质分析,具有良好的拟合和预测效果.     

非稳腔中调腔孔对光束质量的影响

在中、远红外波段的激光器中，组成谐振腔的反射镜基底材料多数是对可见光不透明的，采用在腔镜上开一小孔输入调腔光方法是最简便的。本文用Ｆｏｘ－Ｌｉ迭代法计算了无开孔及有开孔时正支非稳共焦腔空腔的模式，结果表明当调腔光开孔直径小于３ｍｍ时，对光束质量基本没有影响。     

CO2 dial for monitoring atmospheric pollutants at the University of Calabria

Summary In this report we introduce the infrared lidar-dial apparatus developed at the University of Calabria. It has been carried out as a tool in the investigation of both the atmospheric pollution of trace gases and other atmospheric parameters as water vapour. The general scheme of the station is described, as well as the performances of the home-made CO₂ laser sources. Finally preliminary measurements of average concentration of ozone and water vapour over a range of about 3 km are presented and discussed in the report.     

六西格玛管理中的网络计划技术及其应用

利用网络计划技术,对节点(事项)和箭条(作业活动)分别规定了六个时间值,讨论了他们之间的关系;结合实例应用,分析了资源的合理配置,得到了有一定参考意义的结果.     

光学补偿LD侧向非均匀泵浦全固化激光器

采用定向棱镜谐振腔、半圆柱面LD阵列交错侧向泵浦两根串接NdYAG激光棒、热传导冷却结构,研制出了一台工程实用的全固化激光器.定向棱镜腔内振荡光线平行于光轴的对称位置交换穿行,匀化了增益,降低了模序数;同时,定向棱镜准相位共轭特性和自准直作用在一定程度上修正波前畸变、热光楔以及热致双折射,保证了大的动态范围内热稳定性,改善了光束质量.激光器采用Cr4+YAG被动调Q,在室温条件下,工作电流为53 A、频率10 Hz时,1.06 μm单脉冲激光能量高于150 mJ、脉宽9 ns、输出稳定度±3%、束散度2.5 mrad且光轴指向稳定,远场分布近似相干平顶高斯光束.     

Predictive values instead of normal ranges: less data, more information

Diagnostic strategies can have various goals at two levels: to facilitate the diagnostic process on the cognitive level, and to serve considerations on the level of the doctor–patient relationship. Requests for laboratory tests could be intended to exclude a disease or to affirm the presence of disease. Thirdly, tactical motives to smoothen the negotiations between doctor and patient probably seem to be important as well. These three intentions differ in prior probability, should lead to different sets of tests, and to different interpretations. Even the cut-off points should differ. This leads to three different decision strategies, both at requesting, as at interpreting the results. Following this line of thought, post-test probabilities are more suitable than normal ranges. Excluding strategy: this is the most prevalent. However, the disadvantage of an excluding strategy (prior 1–5%) is a false-positive result. A positive test result should lead to follow-up by wait and see or by repeated testing. More extensive testing usually is not a very sensible strategy. In practice, physicians simply ignore slightly abnormal values. Mentally they put the cut-off points for normality more broader. The number of tests is small. Confirmative strategy: the disadvantage of a confirmative intention (prior 10–30%) is a false-negative result. Follow-up without testing, repeated testing, or even accepting marginal normal results as abnormal is a proper strategy. The number of tests is moderate to high. Tactical strategy: the tactical intention strategy to reassure the patient – or avoid referrals – could lead to ignoring all slightly positive test results by choosing a higher cut-off point. Actually, considering the usual insignificant diagnostic gain when testing for tactical reasons, all test results are clinically insignificant, unsuspected outliers excluded. Here, a very limited set of tests should be chosen. The laboratory test is the currency in mutual trading medical expectations and relationship considerations between doctor and patient. The number of tests is minimal. If the physician chooses a strategy, a limited range of prior probability is chosen. Then a possibly computerized algorithm produces a “Value (posterior probability)” as test result, replacing “Value (normal ranges)”. Thus one number less on the lab form, yielding more significant information.Presented at the 10th Conference Quality in the Spotlight, March 2005, Antwerp, Belgium     

On‐line Liquid‐liquid Extraction Coupled to a Reversed Micellar‐mediated Chemiluminescence Detection System: Application to the Determination of Amino/Nitroaromatic Compounds

A simple and fast flow method for the trace level determination of p‐toluidine, 2‐methyl‐5‐nitroaniline, and 2,4‐dinitroaniline in aqueous samples is reported. These amino/nitroaromatics are related to trinitrotoluene (TNT) and appear during the degradation process of the explosive. The chemical principles of ion‐pair formation and liquid‐liquid extraction are applied: In aqueous acidic medium, the protonated analyte [HA]⁺ makes an ion‐pair with the tetrachloroaurate(III) ion, followed by on‐line ion‐pair extraction into the dichloromethane carrier used. After membrane separation, the CH₂Cl₂ containing the ion‐pair, [HA]⁺[AuCl₄]⁻, is mixed with the reversed micellar luminescent reagent of luminol (in 0.3 M Na₂CO₃) prepared from cetyl‐trimethylammonium chloride in CH₂Cl₂‐cyclohexane and the [AuCl₄⁻‐luminol chemiluminescence (CL) output is recorded. The detection limits (S/N> 3) are: p‐toluidine, 1.0 × 10⁻⁴M; 2‐methyl‐5‐nitroaniline, 1.0 × 10⁻⁷ M; 2,4‐dinitroaniline, 1.0 × 10⁻⁷ M, while the calibration curves are linear between 1.0 × 10⁻⁴ — 1.0 × 10⁻² M for all the compounds. Although spectral studies indicated the formation and extraction of a very small amount of the ion‐pair species, the reversed micellar‐mediated CL detection system provides an alternative procedure for the determination of degradation products of the explosive TNT in environmental aqueous samples.